Brown’s on Third (if he decides to run)

As the second half of the 2013 – 2014 legislative session gets underway, and it being an election year, including for the Office of Governor, it’s a good time to look at the key players who will influence legislation, and begin to set the stage for the upcoming session. Starting with the Governor’s race, the election is largely expected to be a shoo-in for incumbent Governor Jerry Brown. On the Republican side, former Lieutenant Governor and state Senator, early leader Abel Maldonado dropped out in January amidst turmoil in his campaign staff, clearing the way for Tim Donnelly, a state Assemblyman from Twin Peaks, in the San Bernardino Mountains, and Neel Kashkari from Laguna Beach. Both candidates leave California Republican voters wanting another candidate, as Donnelly is too far right, and Kashkari too far left for their tastes. Donnelly is a founder of the local chapter of the Minuteman militia, patrolling the border with Mexico, and was arrested last year for carrying a firearm into an airport. Kashkari is not your usual Republican as he supports same sex marriage, abortion rights, and voted for Obama in the last election. In the primary they will probably bloody each other up, further reducing their chances. Really their only chance is if Brown drops out of the campaign, as there are currently no Democratic challengers. Technically speaking Brown can’t drop out of the campaign, as he hasn’t yet announced his candidacy, though he has $17 million in the bank in case he does decide to run. Donnelly has a little over $50,000 in his campaign account, and Kashkari has not yet reported since he just entered the fray. This is so lopsided that traditional Republican allies such as the Chamber of Commerce are supporting Brown for reasons that should be obvious at this point. Speaking of Republicans, their numbers among voters in the state are down to 30%, and falling. In the Legislature, they have only 1/3 of each house, giving Democrats a free reign, even on issues requiring a 2/3 vote, such as passing the Budget Act or raising taxes, historically an opportunity for minority party mischief. Through the first half of the session, the bare 2/3 majority has come and gone, as members of the Senate and Assembly leave or get elected to other offices, and special elections follow to fill behind them. The Democratic leadership in the Legislature has been sensitive to this dynamic, and has been strategic in not overreaching, despite ample pressure from their core constituencies to “use it or lose it.” Their fear is that there will be a voter backlash if they try to overachieve, with the result that they underachieved. For example, last year at this time we and others who watch the Legislature expected it to be a year of reform of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). In fact, while a couple of bills made non-substantive changes to CEQA, there was nothing approaching what anyone would term “reform.” This year’s elections are expected to reduce the Democratic majority below 2/3, but it is too close and too early to call. Democrats currently hold all 8 statewide offices, such as Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, etc. The Republicans so far have not produced any credible candidates for any of these offices for the 2014 elections. In order to help reestablish their numbers, California Republicans have picked Jim Brulte as their Party Chairman. Long-time participants in this business will remember Jim Brulte, a former state Senator and Assemblyman, as the nominal author of AB 1890, 1996’s “Electric Industry Restructuring Act” which among other things created the Independent System Operator and the Power Exchange, froze residential rates, and authorized bonds to buy the utilities out of the generation business. So he has some familiarity with energy issues. He is also something of a centrist, works well with people and is generally well-liked. Whether he is able to reverse his party’s fortune in a state where Latinos are the largest plurality and with people like Donnelly representing his party is anybody’s guess. Both Democratic leaders – Senate President Pro Tempore Darrell Steinberg and Assembly Speaker John Pérez - are leaving at the end of this year due to term limits. A brief scuffle happened behind the scenes in each house, and successors have been chosen. In the Senate, Kevin de León (D – Los Angeles) will become Pro tem, and Toni Atkins (D – San Diego) will become Speaker. All four of these individuals can be considered to be of the liberal part of the political spectrum, and the newcomers may be more inclined than their predecessors to “use it or lose it,” if they indeed still have a supermajority when they take their new offices next year. Both de León and Atkins grew up poor, he in a San Diego barrio and she a Virginia coal miner’s daughter. They are both hard workers, and tend to be focused on issues of social justice. See Kevin’s biography here , and Toni’s here . Brown delivered his annual State of the State speech January 22 nd . This speech is intended to set the tone for the upcoming budget deliberations, and for the Legislative session generally. Most notable in his speech was a call for fiscal prudency, to pay down debt and set aside a reserve rather than spend on expanding programs. With regards to the energy agenda, he mentioned AB 32, building and appliance efficiency standards, the renewables portfolio standard, and support of electric vehicles. This was in the context of self-congratulation more than laying out an agenda for the future, so the Governor’s energy agenda for 2014 remains mysterious. So it appears that the actors are all on stage, the curtain’s up, and the script is still being written.

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Brown’s on Third (if he decides to run)

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