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Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law April 13 a legislative package providing $536 million in emergency funding for wildfire prevention and response. “California is taking bold, early action to protect our high-risk communities from the upcoming wildfire season before it starts,” Newsom said.

Proceeds from the state’s Carbon Cap-and-Trade program and its General Fund provided in the newly signed SB 85 and AB 79 will go to system hardening, vegetation management, workforce training, and community outreach, the governor and lawmakers agreed.

Newsom included a $1 billion Wildfire and Forest Resilience Action Plan in his January 2021 proposed budget to expand vegetation management and add firefighting helicopters, tankers, and crews. He also approved an $80.74 million expenditure March 30 for new CalFire staff by May 2021.

California’s average temperature is up “almost 3°F since the beginning of the 20th century and its eight warmest years have been since 2010,” according to North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies Research Scientist Laura Stevens.

Power system design standards were for 56 MPH winds, but average wind speeds of over 100 MPH and record-breaking windstorm durations were recorded in 2020, according to SDG&E Director Fire Science and Climate Adaptation Brian D’Agostino.

And as of April 1, over 90% of the state faced “moderate” to “exceptional” drought affecting an estimated 33 million people, the state’s Drought Monitor concluded. In addition, foliage moisture is at record lows, according to San Jose State University's Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center .

From Jan. 1, 2017, through Dec. 29, 2020, California faced 33,769 wildfires across over 7.5 million acres, according to CalFire. The fire suppression costs alone for the devastating 2020-21 fire season are now estimated at $1.05 billion. The associated costs are expected to be much higher.

Since 2017, California has had nine of its 20 biggest fires , 13 of its 20 most destructive fires , and seven of its 20 deadliest fires , according to records that go back to the 1930s.

Utilities at work

California has 33 million acres of forest lands, according to the University of California, Berkeley . Federal agencies manage about 57% of those acres, state and local agencies cover 3%, and 40% of forestlands are privately owned. Utility lines run through it all.

Since 2018, California’s private utilities have been required by the CPUC to file annual updates to their Wildfire Mitigation Plans .

Most major fires in recent years have been in Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison territories. San Diego Gas and Electric has not had a major incident since its devastating 2007-2008 season. Many of the wildfire prevention tools and enhancements in its 2021 WMP update began in response to those wildfires.

As the first of the IOUs to initiate comprehensive wildfire mitigations, SDG&E’s planning remains the standard, according to regulators. PG&E and SCE fire mitigation plans reflect similar strategies. Total costs are projected to be over $21.7 billion by 2022, with PG&E’s large and so-far under-prepared territory representing over $15 billion.

System hardening will accelerate more in 2021, their plans promised . They are covering wires with insulation and adding protective devices like fast-acting fuses to interrupt electricity flows when a fault is detected. More detailed data on historical events and weather patterns allow for system hardening sooner where risks of ignitions are greatest.

Accelerated inspections with drones and personnel will identify where transmission and distribution system upgrades are needed. They also have prioritized vegetation management , including the trimming of tens of thousands of trees and the clearing of brush from tens of thousands of poles, as well as focusing costly line undergrounding and microgrid build outs in targeted high fire risk areas.

Artificial Intelligence refines large complex data

Data now being fed into artificial intelligence and machine learning analyses will enhance the private utilities’ prevention and detection systems, SDG&E's D’Agostino said. Refining large complex data sets with AI can lead to predicting significant weather events and projecting their impacts days in advance, he added.

Finally, the IOUs are working to win community support. SDG&E wants to provide “a wildfire safety culture that values life‐safety over reliability,” its WMP said . Both PG&E and SCE are partnering with local governments and groups to improve communications about the controversial Public Safety Power Shutoffs and to provide community support on fires and outages .

Public safety shutoffs are “a tool of last resort,” SDG&E and SCE plans agreed . PG&E is working hard to limit the extent and duration of its safety outages and is aware customers remain dissatisfied, it reported to the CPUC in a March 29 workshop .

“I am glad you realize your plans have not met expectations,” CPUC President Marybel Batjer told PG&E Executive VP and COO Adam Wright. “You will be judged by your outcomes not your plans.”

Power lines have caused only about 10% of California wildfires, but “roughly half” of the most destructive ones, the CPUC said. Public safety shutoffs have been used 33 times for the 57,000 wildfires between 2013 and 2019, causing significant harms. New guidelines were ordered in 2017 and 2020 to accelerate microgrid deployment and enhance community engagement .

Safety shutoffs called unreasonable mitigation

The idea that SCEs safety shutoffs have been a “reasonable” mitigation of wildfires is “ludicrous,” City of Santa Clarita Intergovernmental Relations Analyst Masis Hagobian said. Their “unintended consequences” have kept people from pumping well water to fight the fires or getting their cars out of their garages to evacuate, he added.

Public safety shutoffs may be necessary when they reduce wildfire risk and associated costs like home insurance, countered Sen. Brian Dahle (R-Bieber), whose constituency is served by PG&E. “It is common sense to target high risk areas when it is dry and the winds increase, but the frequency and duration can be limited.”

There is no conclusive evidence safety outage protections outweigh their harms, Center of Accessible Technology Legal Director Melissa Kasnitz told the CPUC March 26. They create “substantial harm” for medically vulnerable utility customers, like those with breathing assistance or electric wheelchairs, she added. California “is absolutely failing them,” she said.

Year-round fire season

California fires were responsible for 22 of the federal agencies’ 50 biggest fires in 2020 and the $1.24 billion of their estimated suppression costs . California Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Sen. Alex Padilla and 21 members of Congress asked the U.S. Agriculture and Interior departments to fund a year-round firefighting workforce on April 5 because a “new normal” is creating “havoc” in “a nearly year-round fire season.”

Wildfires “will occur because our ecosystems evolved to burn periodically,” said Michael Wara, Director of the Woods Institute Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford University and a member of the state’s Commission on Wildfires .

The choice in a fire-vulnerable ecosystem that California must make is to burn when it chooses to, or to deal with fires when they begin by accident and typically are most dangerous, he said.

One will require a lot more fuels management, including prescribed burns . The other will require a massive firefighting response, Wara said. "Either will require a lot more funding. But wildfires are becoming the new normal, and we must choose to manage the risk or to get used to crisis after crisis."