Calif’s Zero Emissions Goal Drives Huge New Demand, Weird Math and Dunkelflaute

California may face up to a 90% growth in electricity demand to meet its economy-wide zero emissions by 2045 goal, according to a forthcoming report from a leading California power sector analyst.

Electric loads are expected to increase by 60% to 90% before the middle of the century, Energy and Environmental Economics reported in a March 15 preliminary presentation to the California Air Resources Board obtained by Current . E3 does much of the state public agencies’ power sector forecasting.

Renewables advocates often object to E3 findings as not ambitious enough while investor-owned utilities tend find them too ambitious. But they agreed on its demand projections of Senate Bill 100’s 2045 net zero mandate.

E3’s findings echo those from the California Energy Commission. Both also concluded that the decarbonization objectives can be achieved.

Adapting to a changing climate will drive “ significant electrification load growth , especially from the transportation and building sectors,” and the state must “proactively plan ahead now,” Southern California Edison spokesperson Jeffrey Monford said.

The magnitude of E3’s demand growth projection “is not new energy demand, it's new electricity demand,” for buildings and transportation, agreed Environmental Defense Fund California Energy Program Director Michael Colvin, citing an EDF-Clean Air Task Force commissioned study .

The CEC’s March 2021 projections and E3’s foresee the need to add 175 GW to 200 GW of new clean energy by 2045, said Union of Concerned Scientists Western States Energy Manager and Senior Analyst Mark Specht.

That ambition will require record-setting resource development every year for two decades, but the CEC found that meeting the level of demand in E3’s projections is “technically achievable,” Specht said. The total resource cost is “about 6% higher,” but could be lower if the falling costs for renewables, load flexibility, and energy storage accelerate, the CEC also found.

A changing power supply

California has a “weird math problem,” involving subtraction and addition: it eliminates greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels, and simultaneously doubles or triples generation, Colvin said. The state can start solving the problem of meeting the projected demand growth with procurements of solar and batteries to go with its existing renewables fleet.

But long periods of low solar and wind output over hundreds miles, called “dunkelflaute,” the German word for dark doldrums, can threaten an all-renewables system’s reliability, the EDF-led paper reported . That will require the power supply to include “clean firm power technologies” for dispatch “when and for how long they are needed,” Colvin said.

Clean firm power can be from green hydrogen, geothermal, future nuclear or natural gas generation with carbon capturing technologies, any combination of them, or innovative new solutions, the EDF paper said. The right choice could deliver carbon-free electricity at an estimated $0.07/kWh to $0.10/kWh, which is comparable to today’s average $0.09/kWh, it added.

Because clean firm power is more easily built and used when and where it is most convenient rather when and where wind or solar resources are, it can take advantage of existing infrastructure. Using existing transmission and generation infrastructure that is idle except during peak demand periods can get the state “much of the way to the 2045 goals,” Colvin said.

Using clean firm power reduces the land need under SB 100 from over 6,250 square miles to about 2,500 square miles, and its new transmission need from 9 million MW-miles to 3 million MW-miles, EDF estimated. It also reduces the need for 160 GW of new four-hour batteries to 100 GW or less, and could reduce the long duration storage need enough to lower electricity rates by 25%, it added.

Technological and geographical resource diversity generally lowers total resource costs, CEC’s SB 100 paper agreed.

Steps ahead

Recent procurements ordered by California regulators are significant steps to meet E3 demand growth projections.

“We are probably lagging a little, but the fact that buildout records are not being broken yet is not a concern, UCS’s Specht said. The February CPUC decision , based in CEC SB 100 projections, moved the statewide emissions target down from 46 million metric tons to 38 MMT and will likely accelerate clean energy procurements, he added.

Other recent CPUC rulings also took major steps toward meeting the rising load, he and Colvin said. A 2019 ruling required load serving entities to procure 3,300 MW by 2022 , and 2021 decisions required up to 3,000 MW of clean resources by 2023 and 11,500 MW more by 2026 .

The proposed California Independent System Operator $30.5 investment in transmission over the next 20 years , based on SB 100 projections by the CEC, is another major step. It will guide “key decisions about optimal power and transmission development” for the almost 120 GW of new generation needed “to meet California’s rising demand for electricity,” the CAISO plan reported .

But a major build out of generation and transmission infrastructure and the challenges “should not be minimized,” Colvin cautioned.

Challenges

SCE “is eager” to get ahead of the buildout need because siting, licensing, and permitting can cause projects to take up to a decade, the utility’s Monford said. And “backloading the buildout or building just in time will be expensive at best and impossible at worst.”

“Identifying the land to build on and streamlining the permitting process remain challenges,” UCS’s Specht and EDF’s Colvin agreed.

The CPUC-ordered procurements also face a challenge. Ordered largely to meet reliability needs, they could have too much energy storage, which “doesn't produce clean energy by itself,” Sprecht said.

More aggressive decarbonization than the new 38 MMT statewide emissions cap will be needed to reach California’s climate goals , he added. The decision approved study of a 30 MMT emissions reduction plan which could be used if new research “shows a need to accelerate,” Specht said.

Though E3 findings align with CEC findings, it is “discouraging” that they show the state power sector reaching 30 MMT around 2045 and remaining there, which “doesn’t make sense if the goal is net zero,” Specht said. E3 modeling could compare the costs of more aggressive decarbonization with more clean energy rather than relying on CO2 capture and removal he said.

The technologies and strategies to solve California’s weird math problem are not yet certain, but delaying risks failure, EDF’s Colvin said, echoing SCE’s urgency. New generation and transmission should be first and customer options like electric vehicles and appliances and heat pumps must become commercially available to drive economy-wide building and transportation electrification, he added.

“It is important to start using different resource portfolios and let experience and the markets identify the best and most politically and technologically feasible options,” Colvin said.