Demand for power from the state's three major investor-owned utilities won't be as high as previously thought, according to a revised 2011-2012 forecast adopted by the California Energy Commission March 9. In the latest forecast outlined in the current Integrated Energy Policy Report proceeding, Energy Commission staff stated that "economic conditions have worsened in California, relative to the short-term assumptions underlying load forecasts for 2009 and 2010." So in the revised short-term demand analysis, commission staff lowered the forecast for Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric. The IEPR, which is supposed to be used by the governor and lawmakers as a blueprint for California energy policy, was last adopted in 2009. For 2011, the forecast foresees PG&E's peak demand at 22,618 MW, down 4.1 percent from the 2009 IEPR forecast of 23,594 MW in 2011. Edison's 2011 peak demand was downgraded by 5.9 percent-to 24,352 MW from 25,878 MW. SDG&E's 2011 peak demand forecast slid 4.7 percent, from 5,036 MW to 4,801 MW. In the revised 2012 forecast, PG&E's peak demand number slipped from the earlier forecasted demand by 4.3 percent, from 23,959 MW to 22,936, while Edison's fell from 26,266 MW to 24,686 MW-a 6 percent decline. SDG&E's 2012 forecast was revised to 4,882 MW, a 4.7 percent decrease from the earlier forecast of 5,124 MW. Short-term peak demand forecasts, like the one approved by the Energy Commission this week, are used by the California Independent System Operator in its analysis of local generation capacity. The analysis determines the minimum amount of capacity resources that must be available to the grid operator within areas that have local reliability problems. The data are then used to settle on the generation capacity required to address the problems. That capacity is allocated to load-serving entities as part of their local resource adequacy requirement for the upcoming year. A preliminary forecast for the commission's 2011 Integrated Energy Policy Report is expected by May. In a related development, the California Independent System Operator March 9 noted that resources to feed the grid are 6 percent to 7 percent less than in 2010. The grid operator noted that most of the state's electricity requirements are declining, except for the Ventura and Humboldt regions which only experienced a light increase in resource requirements, according to Catalin Micsa, CAISO lead transmission engineer.
