CEC Energy Forecast Points to Rising Electricity Demand

The latest versions of the Integrated Energy Policy Report and state energy demand forecast were approved by the California Energy Commission during its Feb. 21 meeting and they show faster growth in electricity use than previously forecast.

Annual demand growth from 2016-2027 in the forecast averages 1.64 percent in the high case, 1.32 percent in the mid scenario, and 1.02 percent in the low case. By comparison, the 2016 demand forecast projected growth in the mid case of 1.02 percent.

“We have faster growth in our mid-case and that comes about because of our higher EV (electric vehicle) forecast versus the last time,” explained Chris Kavalec of the Energy Commission’s Energy Assessments Division.

Growing usage is outlined in the California Energy Demand 2018-2030 forecast , which describes the Energy Commission’s revised 12-year forecasts for electricity consumption, retail sales, and peak demand for each of five major electricity planning areas and for the state as a whole. It gives baseline predictions of natural gas and electricity consumption and peak demand for California and for utility planning areas within the state.

The forecast’s high demand scenario incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth and climate change impacts, and relatively low electricity rates and self-generation impacts. The low energy demand case includes lower economic/demographic growth, higher assumed rates, and higher self-generation impacts. The mid case uses input assumptions at levels between the high and low cases.

The report also describes hourly load forecasts, which incorporate residential time-of-use pricing, electric vehicle charging profiles, and photovoltaic system generation profiles. Additionally, the report describes the process for development, and presents estimates, of savings through additional achievable energy efficiency and photovoltaic installations.

The adopted forecast is to be used in a number of planning proceedings, including California Independent System Operator transmission planning and California Public Utilities Commission integrated resource and distributed resource planning.

The Integrated Energy Policy Report focused on the need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in California’s energy system.

“The state must further transform its energy system away from fossil fuels while maintaining the services Californians rely on at a reasonable price, including energy for lighting, heat on a cold day, air conditioning during a heat wave, and fuel to get to school, work, or vacation,” the report states in part.

The report is a biennial integrated energy policy road map that assesses major energy trends and issues facing the state’s electricity, natural gas, and transportation fuel sectors, and gives policy recommendations to ensure reliable and diverse energy supplies, among other things.

Among the topics explored in the report are: reducing greenhouse gas emissions while growing the economy; trends in greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector; transforming California’s energy system to meet a 2030 greenhouse gas reduction goal; and doubling energy efficiency savings by 2030.

Regarding greenhouse gas reductions, the report states that since peaking in 2001, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of gross state product have steadily declined by 33 percent while the economy grew 37 percent. However, achieving a goal of a 40 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2030 requires unprecedented reductions that are still being contemplated, the report concluded.

Regarding trends in carbon emissions in the electricity industry, the sector accounted for about 19 percent of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2015, with greenhouse gas emissions about 24 percent below 1990 levels in 2015, according to data cited in the report.

“This reduction has been achieved even with the closure of the zero-greenhouse-gas-emitting San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station in 2013 and low hydroelectricity production in 2015 due to drought,” states the report. “The reduced emissions in the electricity sector are in part attributable to an increase in renewable energy resources and a reduction in coal-fired electricity.”

The document also states that the Energy Commission, working with the CPUC and publicly-owned utilities, is “setting the path” for doubling energy efficiency savings by 2030 via various means. Among them are utility-funded activities that range from incentives aimed at directly influencing consumer choices to those that target efficiency improvements in supply chains including manufacturers, contractors, and builders.

Also important in advancing efficiency, according to the report, are non-utility-funded activities like enhanced building and appliance codes, emerging technologies, innovative market solutions, progressive program designs and public awareness.

In other action, the commission approved 10 members for a new advisory panel representing disadvantaged communities.

The Disadvantaged Communities Advisory Group is mandated under SB 350. The law required the Energy Commission and Public Utilities Commission to establish the group to give advice on proposed clean energy and pollution reduction programs, and determining whether they would be effective and useful in disadvantaged communities.

The newly-approved members are: Stephanie Chen, energy & telecommunications policy director for the Greenlining Institute; Kevin Day, tribal chairman of the Tuolumne Me-Wuk Tribal Council; Stan Greschner, vice president of governmental relations & market development at GRID Alternatives; Angela Islas, who’s a community health worker at Central California Asthma Collaborative, a legislative assistant at Central Valley Air Quality Coalition, and a community activist; Roger Lin a senior attorney with the Center for Race, Poverty & the Environment; Earthjustice Staff Attorney Adriano Martinez; Rising Sun Energy Center Executive Director Jodi Pincus; Andres Ramirez, clean energy director at Pacoima Beautiful; Woodie Rucker-Hayes, president of the Riverside branch of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People; Phoebe Seaton, co-director and attorney at the Leadership Counsel for Justice & Accountability; and Tyrone Williams, the director of development at the Sacramento Housing & Redevelopment Agency and director of the Sacramento Promise Zone.

The advisory group members are also expected to also be approved by the Public Utilities Commission during its March 1 business meeting. — Mark Edward Nero

Over 11K Stories!

| Independently Powered Energy News

CEC Energy Forecast Points to Rising Electricity Demand

William J. Kelly

Related Posts

Op-Ed: Before and After Net Energy Metering 3, A Thought Experiment

Auld Lang Zine

Air Regulators 2022 Scoping Plan to Slash Emissions is a Go

Planners Discuss Western Transmission Projects