CLIMATE CHANGE ROUNDUP: Climate Change May Temper El Niño

California’s state climatologist is warning that due to climate change the forecasted El Niño may have less than a 50 percent chance of bringing an end to the state’s severe drought, which has crimped hydropower production.

“Historical weather data show us that at best, there is a 50/50 chance of having a wetter winter,” said Michael Anderson, state climatologist. “Unfortunately, due to shifting climate patterns, we cannot even be that sure.”

Historical data on past droughts and El Niños, during which the eastern Pacific is warmer than normal, show that of seven years with similar ocean temperatures three were wet, one produced average precipitation, and three were dry.

Anderson noted that due to climate change, warmer winter temperatures may offset the effect of this year’s El Niño. * * * * *

Nationwide carbon dioxide emissions from electricity production reached a new monthly low last April of 128 million metric tons, a monthly level not seen since 1988, according to the Energy Information Agency earlier this month. EIA attributed the low level to a reduction in coal-fired generation.

The agency noted that in April—the month when electricity demand typically is at a low point—natural gas-fired plants produced more energy than coal plants for the first time. * * * * *

Fifteen state attorneys general Aug. 14 filed a lawsuit contesting the legality of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan, which was finalized Aug. 3. The plan requires states to come up with plans that cut greenhouse gases from power generation 32 percent by 2030.

The plan sets the first national greenhouse gas standards for the power industry. It is widely heralded in California as a boon to the state’s efforts to cut carbon emissions.

“We see the Clean Power Plan as creating opportunities to further modernize the western grid into a flexible, resilient system that will meet or exceed state and federal environmental goals,” stated Steve Berberich, California Independent System Operator president and chief executive officer, when EPA issued the final plan.

The suit is led by West Virginia, a major coal state. Other states joining in the legal action also are either big coal producers or generators of coal power. * * * * *

Last year, wind power capacity in the U.S, grew eight percent, reaching 66 gigawatts. That puts the country in second place behind China for wind energy capacity across the globe, the Department of Energy reported Aug. 10.

“Through continued investments and the help of stable policies, we’re confident that wind power will keep playing a major role in creating jobs and shaping America’s clean energy future,” said Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz.

Wind energy costs continue to drop and the renewable resource is competitive with traditional power sources.

DOE noted in two new reports that it released last week on wind energy installations that the trend is towards larger turbines capturing power at lower wind speeds.

In addition, at the end of 2014, a total of 906 MW is provided by distributed wind turbines. * * * * *

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Aug. 18 issued proposed regulations to control methane emissions from new and modified oil and natural gas facilities.

The rule, according to the agency, is part of the President’s plan to cut methane emissions up to 45 percent over a decade. It would apply to such facilities as compressors, wells, and pipelines.

Methane is considered 84 times more powerful in warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide and the oil and natural gas industries are the key source of emissions. The Environmental Defense Fund Aug. 17 estimated that the industries combined leak more than 7 million tons of the gas to the atmosphere every year from a web of equipment—including wells, compressors, pipelines, and vents.

The environmental group estimates it would cost about $118 million annually to cut those emissions by 40 percent. —William J. Kelly & Elizabeth McCarthy