Ferguson’s Forecast

Storage is the main price driver for natural gas. Storage also provides the most current and accurate snapshot of the natural gas market's supply and demand. The following data are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Energy Circuit takes no responsibility for the accuracy of this forecast. Yesterday?s reported storage build of 108 bcf for the week ending July 9 is difficult to understand. With higher temperatures than the week before, my model estimated that an additional 23 bcf would be used to generate power for air conditioners. Still, the amount of gas going into storage was nearly unchanged compared to the prior week?another whopping increase. The price on the NYMEX fell below $6.00/MMBtu this week for the first time since April. In response to the storage report, it closed Thursday at $5.85/MMBtu. Gas prices have softened, indicating that concerns about supply adequacy and prices are abating. Assuming the USEIA numbers are correct, an additional 25 bcf of gas has suddenly shown up in the U.S. system. U.S. Natural Gas Storage (in billion cubic feet) Date (2004) Stocks Change from prior week Forecast change Prior 5-year average stocks* June 18 1,845 +85 +80 1,863 June 25 1,938 +93 +87 1,940 July 2 2,047 +109 +96 2,028 July 9 2,155 +108 +75 2,109 July 16 +82 2,171 * Historical averages may differ slightly from those reported by USEIA.

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Ferguson’s Forecast

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