Ferguson’s Forecast

Storage is the main price driver for natural gas. Storage also provides the most current and accurate snapshot of the natural gas market's supply and demand. The following data are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Energy Circuit takes no responsibility for the accuracy of this forecast. Comments: Storage for the week ending June 18 was reported up 85 bcf, only slightly higher than expectations. Gas prices traded in a narrow range this week, closing yesterday at around $6.50. Cool weather in the upper Midwest this week leads us to expect a slightly larger storage build for the week ending today. At current prices, importing liquefied natural gas would be profitable, but it is unlikely the large number of proposed terminals will lower prices significantly in the next few years. Only a handful of proposed terminals are likely to become operational this decade. Moreover, domestic production is marginal even at today?s prices and would decrease further if prices were to fall. LNG imports, however, may prevent actual shortages. U.S. Natural Gas Storage (in billion cubic feet) Date (2004) Stocks Change from prior week Forecast change Prior 5-year average stocks* May 28 1,564 +87 +86 1,590 June 4 1,666 +102 +90 1,680 June 11 1,760 +94 +82 1,767 June 18 1,845 +85 +80 1,863 June 25 +87 1,940 * Historical averages may differ slightly from those reported by USEIA.

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Ferguson’s Forecast

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