Ferguson’s Forecast

Storage is the main price driver for natural gas. Storage also provides the most current and accurate snapshot of the natural gas market's supply and demand. The following data are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Energy Circuit takes no responsibility for the accuracy of this forecast. Storage for the week ending July 2 was reported up 93 bcf, again slightly higher than expectations. More cool weather leads us to expect a somewhat larger storage build for the week ending today. Supply relative to demand has been stable in recent weeks, resulting in rather stable prices. Small movements in the gas market are attributed to changes in crude oil prices. The California Energy Commission is understandably nervous over the possibility of supply shortages or higher prices and would like advance warning for policy makers. New planned analyses may not be able to provide it, however. The computer model used by the CEC assumes that changes happen gradually and smoothly, but the real world is quite volatile. Developments that interest analysts and worry politicians are precisely those things that computer models miss. In order to be useful, the commission is going to have to think outside the usual boxes. We wish them luck. U.S. Natural Gas Storage (in billion cubic feet) Date (2004) Stocks Change from prior week Forecast change Prior 5-year average stocks* June 4 1,666 +102 +90 1,680 June 11 1,760 +94 +82 1,767 June 18 1,845 +85 +80 1,863 June 25 1,938 +93 +87 1,940 July 2 +96 2,028 * Historical averages may differ slightly from those reported by USEIA.

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Ferguson’s Forecast

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