Ferguson's Forecast: The Day the Gas Market Went Nuts

Editor's note: Energy Circuit takes no responsibility for the accuracy of this forecast. The morning before Thanksgiving, all was calm at the NYMEX, where natural gas is traded. The U.S. Energy Information Administration was due to release its gas storage report for the previous week at noon Eastern time. Analysts were expecting nothing unusual, and gas prices were lower in lackluster trading. However, at noon, USEIA reported that a whopping 49 billion cubic feet had been taken from storage in the week ending November 19, and the market went nuts. By the end of the day, the price of contracts for delivery in December jumped $1.21/MMBtu (+18 percent). The more widely traded January contract price jumped $1.02 (+13 percent). How could storage have decreased 49 bcf in one week? Bloomberg News reported a consensus expectation that storage would be down only 13 bcf. My model forecast a draw of 9 bcf. Our models account for temperatures around the country, which were only slightly cooler than the previous week. In the Midwest and East, temperatures had been well above average. Cold weather was not the cause. Did supplies suddenly drop or consumption unrelated to weather jump? Perhaps, but to account for the large draw on storage, supplies would have decreased by about 8 percent in one week. Temperature-independent consumption would have increased by about 12 percent. Surely someone would have noticed that such unprecedented large changes were under way. I suspect that an error in the storage reporting process occurred. It could be as simple as a typographical error that no one caught, a more sophisticated statistical glitch that sneaked through the system, or a nefarious plot to push up gas prices. If the latter, the perpetrator certainly succeeded. As certainly as night follows day, there will be calls for an investigation, and we eventually may know what happened. Regardless of the cause, we are reminded that oil and gas markets currently are extremely touchy and react vigorously (some would say overreact) to surprises. We await the next storage report on Thursday with trepidation. I forecast a draw of 15 bcf, but you never know what will happen.

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Ferguson’s Forecast: The Day the Gas Market Went Nuts

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