Forecasting Is Key Resource-Adequacy Goal

For many stakeholders, the ?most crucial? resource-adequacy forecasting concern is that the load of all customers, including new customers, is assigned to some load-serving entity, according to a California Public Utilities Commission report. The document summarized ongoing workshops in which stakeholders are trying to pin down all the details of implementing the state?s goal to have enough new electric supplies to meet growing demand. The June 15 report highlighted key issues without making recommendations. The issues include: Forecasting: If customers aren?t kept track of through load-serving entities, the resource-adequacy goal may be thwarted. Complicating load forecasting is the fact that customers can move among providers. Deliverability: The biggest question in this arena, according to stakeholders, is how to gauge when general system conditions?as opposed to actions of specific generators?hinder getting resources through to customers. Deliverability can vary year to year because of the need for system upgrades, hindering planning and investment. Planning for ?load pockets,? or areas with transmission constraints, was cited as especially thorny. Stakeholders recommended that resources be precertified as to their deliverability. After the California Independent System Operator recently charged that some of Southern California Edison?s supplies haven?t been deliverable, commission president Michael Peevey pressed utilities to step up contracts, emphasizing reliability ( Circuit , June 19, 2004). Reasonableness: Many stakeholders recommended that meeting the resource-adequacy requirement that providers line up 90 percent of needed resources a year in advance should precede providing evidence on the reasonableness of these deals. Allowing providers to defer analysis of cost recovery and determination of whether the contracts make economic sense will guard against the procurement process getting bogged down, they maintain. Peevey is expected to release a draft decision this summer weighing in on the resource-adequacy report and responses to it. Long-term procurement plans are due July 9.

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Forecasting Is Key Resource-Adequacy Goal

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