Heat Wave Grid Simulation Data Still Unavailable

With summer only three weeks away, the results of a first-of-its-kind simulation of the state energy grid?s performance during an extreme heat wave are a week late. However, an initial draft analysis revealed no major grid problems. The California Independent System Operator expects data on its own simulated performance and that of 40 market participants conducted May 3-5 to be released next week. CAISO initially hoped to release the findings in late May but has delayed the report by a week in an effort to present meaningful results without divulging confidential information from market players. Pinpointing transmission constraints is seen as instrumental to making it through this summer without potential blackouts or brownouts. The electricity supply situation has tightened because of growing demand, and the National Weather Service has forecast hotter and drier weather in the southeastern part of the state this summer. An initial draft analysis showed no symptoms of grid stress, said Gary Ackerman, Western Power Trading Forum executive director. Some test participants, however, are concerned that the simulation failed to factor in some crucial load and supply issues. ?If the system doesn?t have all the information, then what good is the test?? asked Ackerman. ?We just don?t think it?s a very good reflection of how things will be on a peak day.? However, the simulation was not expected to be 100 percent certain in pinpointing problems because of the dynamic nature of the grid, said Gregg Fishman, CAISO spokesperson. ?We?re doing our best to make the information as accurate and useful as possible,? he said, adding that the exercise did turn up valuable information. As part of the exercise, market participants submitted schedules to CAISO simulating both an average hot summer day and an extended heat wave. CAISO ran those schedules through a computerized model of the grid to find out whether and where transmission constraints might occur. CAISO predicts it will be able to release its study before the next heat wave strikes. The weather service forecasts mild temperatures in most of the state next week, with the mercury barely cracking 80 degrees in Southern California?s inland load centers. Fires present another danger to the grid, especially as the prolific growth brought by winter?s heavy rains dries out. On Memorial Day, the California Department of Forestry declared the beginning of peak fire season in Southern California, which will run into December. Peak fire season in Northern California is expected to begin by June 15 and run through October.

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Heat Wave Grid Simulation Data Still Unavailable

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