California may ease the way for an increased blending of ethanol in gasoline. The California Air Resources Board is preparing to amend its gasoline standards in April to make way for the change. Currently, California gasoline consists of about 6 percent ethanol. The change would make it easier to increase that to 10 percent ethanol, which is known as E10. "It certainly seems that use of E10 is going to be more viable than it was previously," said Steve Brisby, CARB fuels section manager, at a January 26 public workshop on the proposed changes. The air board is contemplating the amendments in the form of proposed changes to its "predictive model" for California gasoline. That model is used to determine whether a particular gasoline blend meets the board's emissions standards when burned. The changes would provide fuel producers with greater flexibility in meeting the standards, explained Dean Simeroth, air board criteria pollutants branch chief. "Small changes can make big differences," he said. Uncertainty about what the agency would do with its predictive model has been a key obstacle to increasing the level of ethanol in gasoline, according to the California Energy Commission. Refiners have been reluctant to invest in changing their plants until they see how the board deals with increased emissions of hydrocarbons from gasoline containing low percentages of ethanol. The extra emissions result from a phenomenon caused largely by "permeation." Ethanol makes gasoline seep through rubber hoses and fittings on cars and evaporate. Once in the air, it becomes a precursor pollutant that contributes to ozone formation. New cars built to handle fuel with ethanol do not experience permeation, but older vehicles do. Thus, extra emissions will diminish as older-model cars are retired, but higher use of ethanol will increase smog-forming emissions in the interim (Circuit, Jan. 19, 2007). This concerns the South Coast Air Quality Management District, which has jurisdiction over the Los Angeles basin. The local district develops clean-air plans for the basin, but because its primary regulatory authority is over stationary sources, it must rely on the state air board to set clean-air standards for motor vehicles and automotive fuels. "Our black-box obligations are probably going to increase," said Paul Wuebben, SCAQMD clean fuels officer. The black-box obligation represents that amount of pollution the district must eliminate to meet federal air quality standards but cannot do so because of a lack of technology. Instead of allowing an increase in the blend of ethanol in gasoline, the South Coast air district is asking the state air board to craft a standard that would require refineries to make fuel without using any ethanol. The district has endorsed such a specification proposed by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers and included the standard in its draft 2007 Air Quality Management Plan, which is to be adopted later this year. The air district claims that the standard would reduce emissions in its area by 11.6 tons a day for volatile organic compounds and 16.1 tons a day for nitrogen oxides. The Los Angeles area needs "the cleanest gas" possible to meet federal clean-air standards, said Wuebben. However, the CEC has noted that state refiners may not have enough oil-based components to meet gasoline demand, particularly during the heavy summer driving season. In the face of rising gasoline demand, ethanol has allowed refiners to supply a sufficient volume of fuel to keep motorists on the road. - William J. Kelly
