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At least two public utilities are disputing portions of a statewide electricity demand forecast that predicts energy consumption throughout California is to grow less than 2 percent annually over the next 10 years. One utility found lower growth than the forecast. Another utility maintained Aug. 30 that its growth should be higher. The California Energy Commission forecast for 2012-2022 outlines three scenarios: high demand, low demand, and mid-demand. The high-demand case incorporates relatively significant economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, as well as little negawatt impact from efficiency savings and self-generation that reduces the amount of power drawn from the grid. The low-demand case includes lower economic/demographic growth, higher assumed rates, and higher efficiency program and self-generation impacts. Under a middle-demand scenario, statewide GWh consumption is expected to grow by about 1.31 percent annually for the period that ends in 2022. The number is 1.68 percent under the high-demand case scenario and 1.18 percent under low demand. The Energy Commission estimates that Pacific Gas & Electric’s GWh consumption should increase about 1.30 percent annually during the 10-year period. PG&E disputed the findings before CEC staff, saying its own studies paint a different picture. The utility estimates its annual consumption growth at just 0.7 percent over the 10-year period, saying that the Energy Commission’s higher number doesn’t take into account some PG&E energy efficiency measures. The utility also says that its forecast includes a larger impact for the effects of climate change. PG&E has said that the commission systematically used temperature statistics that underestimate the impact of climate change because it doesn’t directly include the minimum daily temperature in the calculation. Instead, PG&E suggested using a temperature statistic that incorporates the minimum temperature. Like PG&E, San Diego Gas & Electric disputed numbers in the report, but for a different reason. According to the Energy Commission, GWh consumption for that utility is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 1.78 percent. San Diego says the number is too low. “Putting SDG&E’s numbers next to the CEC’s numbers … in the total consumption forecast, we do exceed the CEC’s in all cases,” said Tim Vonder, SDG&E’s principal regulatory economic adviser. He said the utility should grow from 2010 “at a rate of 2.3 percent per year,” in contrast to the CEC growth projection at about 1.8 percent. “We plan on doing a little investigation on why we’re different and hopefully this will help us understand the differences between us and the CEC,” Vonder added. Southern California Edison GWh consumption during the 10-year period is expected to rise by 1.22 percent a year, according to the state’s forecast. The study also includes data for the state’s two largest municipal utilities, the Los Angeles Dept. of Water & Power and the Sacramento Municipal Utility District. Of all public and private utilities, the LADWP is the one expected to see the smallest growth in GWh consumption. The CEC projects that the muni would see only a 1.09 percent increase. Meanwhile, SMUD is expected to see consumption growth of about 1.7 percent annually over the 10-year frame, according to the forecast. The forecast also includes predictions on statewide natural gas consumption growth rates. Average annual natural gas consumption by end-users, exclusive of power plants, is projected to grow from 12,665 million therms in 2010 to 13,338 million therms in 2015, 13,789 million therms in 2020, and 13,992 million therms in 2022. Pending revisions, the final electricity and gas forecasts are expected be used in a number of documents, including the Energy Commission’s 2011 Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Public Utilities Commission’s 2012 long-term procurement process, the California Independent System Operator’s controlled grid studies, and other transmission planning studies. However, one member of the public who commented on the forecast, Frank Brandt of San Jose, said that the report as a whole doesn’t serve much of a purpose. “It would be nice if the report had a section justifying itself,” he said. “Individual private and public utilities may file the report in their libraries, but since they generated the data for their own facilities, they will use that in planning for the future.” “One group that might use the data is those that sell the 25 percent of imported electrical energy to the state,” Brandt continued. “If California is lucky, they will overestimate and have to offer their output at a lower price.”

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