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Despite a cooling trend and a drop in power demand from unprecedented highs, a fire started by lighting and fueled by wind July 27 in Shasta County threatens the California-Oregon Intertie. It is "extremely sensitive," said Ed Holinshead, fire and aviation chief of the U.S. Forest Service. Winds are expected to pick up through July 30. At press time there was no immediate threat from the fire, but "it is still a potential threat," said Gregg Fishmann, gird operator spokesperson. If the fire knocks out one of three 500 kV lines that stretch 70 miles, carrying up to 4,200 MW into the state, rolling blackouts are expected to be averted by the grid operator's contingency plans. "We should have enough generation to manage today even if all three circuits are taken out," said Jim Detmers, California Independent System Operator vice-president of operations, July 27. A worst-case scenario was estimated to create a Stage 1 or Stage 2 alert, he added. During the intense heat wave this week, the grid operator depended on electricity imports carried by the lines. Earlier in the week, the prolonged high temperatures frayed the nerves of California officials. "This is extreme," said Joe Desmond, Resources Agency undersecretary for energy affairs, July 25. New peak records were set at the beginning of the week. Heat-related deaths were reported. Temperatures dropped from their record levels Wednesday, but high demand continued across much of the state, and the system continued to run at full tilt. On July 25, the peak demand hit 49,761 MW at 3 p.m. in the grid operator's territory, which was below previous breathtaking records. The most recent top was 50,269 MW, set the day before, which was 4,838 MW above last year's record. The July 26 peak was 47,744 MW, and July 27's was 45,530 MW. The peak forecast for July 28 was 43,241 MW. A Stage 1 alert was called at 1 p.m. on July 25 by the grid operator. The agency noted that a downed power plant or major line would push the system into a Stage 2, when reserves fall below 5 percent. A Stage 2 means that utilities can call on certain customers to shed load. On July 24, a Stage 1 was called at 10 a.m. and a Stage 2 at 1 p.m. "It was difficult, but with hard work we managed," Yakout Mansour, CAISO chief executive officer, said Tuesday about Monday's grid management. "There is a lot more conservation that we can get," noted Wally McGuire, Flex Your Power director. There were about 2,500 MW of regional blackouts, but the grid was saved from systemwide rolling blackouts July 24 by increased imports and peak-time demand response. About 850 negawatts came from the interruptible programs, which involve select businesses shedding load in exchange for rate discounts. "We estimate we got a thousand to fifteen hundred megawatts per day" from conservation efforts, "but it is hard to quantify," CAISO spokesperson Gregg Fishman said midweek. About 8,000 MW of extra supply was imported. Spot-market prices, which cover about 5 percent of the market, were mercurial. They hit $400/MWh early Tuesday afternoon, after falling to $12/MWh. The $400 cap was also hit briefly the following afternoon when reserves fell below 5 percent. Pacific Gas & Electric, in whose territory the average temperature earlier in the week was 104 degrees, hit a new peak record on July 25 of 22,544 MW. That was 2,249 MW above last year's record. On Monday it broke the earlier record, hitting 22,497 MW. There were local blackouts on both PG&E and Southern California Edison turf. Edison had a record peak Tuesday of 22,889 MW, which broke the previous day's record load of 22,816 MW. The average temperature was about 100 degrees. "We expect a very gradual cooling trend, with demand dropping off just as gradually," said Gil Alexander, Edison spokesperson, July 26. "The cooling began yesterday morning, and still our customers set a new record," he added, attributing it to record daytime and nighttime temperatures. A new record was set in San Diego Gas & Electric territory July 22, with the peak reaching 4,502 MW - about 1,500 MW higher than average summer weekend use. Daily demand this week has been more that 4,000 MW, which is "unusual for a string of days," said Eddie Van Herik, SDG&E spokesperson. SDG&E's transmission system was threatened by wildfires midweek. A large fire in the Camp Pendleton area was burning near transmission lines hooking to the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, and another blaze threatened high-voltage lines in eastern San Diego County. "We no longer consider the fires a threat," Van Herik said July 27. The Los Angeles Department of Water & Power also saw new energy-demand highs this week and had 30,000 customers without power. Since July 17, it has seen six of its eight biggest loads ever, said Randy Howard, LADWP chief operating officer. The newest record was set July 24, reaching 6,164 MW. The next day the peak was 6,007 MW, which was 340 MW higher than last year's highest high. "We didn't know our customers could use that much energy," Howard said. "The next nine days we don't expect to set new records but see loads above 5,000 MW, which continues to put a lot of stress on the generation and distribution system." July 24's triple-digit temperatures also created a new peak record in the Sacramento Municipal Utility District of 3,299 MW. That was 120 MW above the record set the day before. On Tuesday, the peak was 3,248 MW, and it hit 3,200 MW July 26. In spite of the precarious situation, officials pointed out that increasing energy supplies to meet unusually high demand in the state was impractical and costly. The adequacy of resources is "based on the most likely assumptions," said Mansour. If hotter than usual weather conditions occur and blackouts are minimal and short, "that is good planning," he added. Top agency officials did everything but call on businesses to shut down July 24. At 2:44 p.m. the state's grid operator hit a record 50,269 MW of demand. "This is not business as usual," Victoria Bradshaw, Workforce Development Agency secretary of labor, said repeatedly during a Monday press conference. The 52,000 MW peak forecast for the beginning of the week was a level that had not been not expected to be reached in the state for another five years, according to the governor's office. Demand is up in the state by 40 percent over peak consumption during the 2000-01 energy crisis, noted Mansour. However, in June the California Energy Commission increased its summer statewide peak forecast, estimating that it would hit 68,250 MW. Excluding non-grid-operator territory, CAISO's peak demand was estimated at 54,510 MW, according to commission spokesperson Claudia Chandler. On July 21, the peak broke records at 49,036 MW. July 22's peak was slightly below forecast at 48,300 MW. July 23 hit a high of 48,489 MW, according to CAISO. U.S. demand for electricity reached record levels last week because of a blistering nationwide heat wave. Utilities delivered 96,314 GWh hours last week, surpassing last year's record of 95,259 GWh, according to the Edison Electric Institute. Under the best scenario, which includes importing 10,000 MW from the Northwest and Canada, California can tap up to 55,000 MW, Mansour said. Other states have been "astonishingly cooperative" about sending in power, he added. Flex Your Power's conservation messages - which ask for basic personal conservation such as holding off on major appliance use until after 7 p.m. - were being broadcast by 235 radio and television stations, according to McGuire. The state Department of Transportation used its changeable highway warning signs to pepper drivers with the conservation message. Schwarzenegger ordered state agencies to reduce electricity demand by 25 percent during peak hours. Power plants are not being run in violation of air pollution rules, added Desmond. He said that suspending air pollution requirements has not been discussed "on conference calls," but did not say whether it was being discussed elsewhere. Desmond avoided attributing the current heat wave to global warming. "I don't think you can make that connection between global warming and today's temperatures, but they are clearly related," he said. - Elizabeth McCarthy & J.A. Savage

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