| Independently Powered Energy News

After much angst in Sacramento and at the headquarters of the Western States Petroleum Association over SB 350, lawmakers signed off on the bill after removing the provision requiring a 50 percent cut in oil use by 2030. Sen. Kevin De León (D-Los Angeles) was forced to drop the oil reduction mandate at the end of last week after a barrage television commercials hammered home the idea that it would cause gasoline rationing. The ads strengthened the opposition of enough Democrats with oil industry ties that they effectively forced De León’s hand. The measure still requires the power industry to move to 50 percent renewable energy by 2030 and to help double energy efficiency in buildings. The result is that the final measure makes it appear that while regulators are cracking down on state utilities and power generators, big oil is off the hook for mandatory greenhouse gas reductions. However, the reality is that petroleum use on California’s highways and byways is largely stagnant, despite a recent uptick with lower prices at the pump, and poised to dramatically decline without a mandatory statutory cut. That’s due to existing standards and trends that are being carved like stone into urban land-use patterns in California. Indeed, it’s very likely the state will come close to cutting oil use in half by 2030 without SB 350’s original gas reduction mandate. Between now and then, the California Air Resources Board continues to have authority over vehicular emissions and fuels and can ramp up standards as it becomes technically and economically feasible. Here are some of the pertinent facts about petroleum usage in California, and to some extent across the nation: Producing and burning oil in California accounted for 192 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2013, according to the state Air Resources Board, or about 42 percent of the total. State and federal standards on the books and upheld in court for new cars, pickup trucks, passenger vans, and sport utility vehicles go from an average of 32.6 miles per gallon next year to 48.7 miles per gallon by 2025, marking a 49.4 percent mileage improvement. Due to flexibilities in the regulations, that won’t translate directly into a 49.4 percent reduction in carbon emissions, according to the Center for Climate & Energy Solutions in Washington. Instead it will result in a 31 percent cut. Medium and heavy-duty truck emissions are under similar fuel economy/carbon emissions standards that will gradually increase fuel economy by 2027. Fuel economy for big rig trucks with the tallest roofs, for instance, will improve almost 17 percent. While improvement will vary based on the size, shapes, and use of commercial trucks, all will be more fuel efficient. California has long subsidized purchases of new, cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicles (particularly hybrid, pure electric, and alternative fueled cars, buses, trucks, and even locomotives and ships while in port). These subsidies will continue and likely be ramped up with the $1 billion a year of new money flowing into California’s coffers beginning this year when the oil industry had to begin purchasing carbon emissions rights under the state’s cap-and-trade program. The subsidy programs help get old, higher emitting vehicles off the road. Meanwhile, downtown and core urban areas are undergoing a revival as state builders move to denser infill development. Coupled with booming passenger rail system construction, the shift from exurban and suburban living, along with changes in the work place like more telecommuting, has effectively caused the state’s vehicle miles travelled curve to top out despite continued population growth. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, state Department of Transportation data show that vehicle miles traveled routinely climbed 4 or 5 percent annually as seas of tract homes rose far from where people worked. In the past 10 years, however, vehicles miles traveled have risen less than a scant 2 percent. A recent change in how traffic impacts are analyzed under the California Environmental Quality Act giving more weight for greenhouse gas reductions—coupled with these new development and public transit trends—could well reduce vehicle miles traveled for years to come. This would heighten the effectiveness of existing emissions standards for cars because new vehicles not only would emit less, but be driven less. Finally, the state has a low-carbon fuel standard that aims to cut carbon emissions from transportation fuels 10 percent. The standard largely has been moribund due to legal challenges, but now that they have been cleared the state is poised to revive the standard. Add it all up and California is extremely likely to come very close to cutting oil use in half by 2030 while saving motorists money on gas and making sure Californians stay as mobile as ever. The bigger problem is keeping oil that otherwise would be burned in California from being burned in China, India, or other nations where auto use is exploding. Toward that end, Gov. Jerry Brown will travel to Paris late this year where international negotiators will attempt to fashion a new global climate change treaty. Despite the oil provisions being axed from SB 350, Brown still has a good story to tell, not only about cleaning up the energy utility industry, but also about how to slash oil use. —William J. Kelly

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