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Does a March report showing Los Angeles can achieve virtually 100% renewable energy as early as 2035 signal Gov. Gavin Newsom and his energy czars are ceding their leadership on a carbon-free economy? And would that perception dissuade environmental voters from supporting the governor in the upcoming recall election?

Recent state decisions to extend the life of aged coastal gas power plants in Redondo Beach, Oxnard, and other places to the end of 2023 can be read that way.

And there’s the March 2020 California Public Utilities Commission decision that carved out a longer-term role for investment in new natural gas plants. It sets a 2030 target of cutting the state’s power industry greenhouse gas emissions from more than 60 million tons a year today to 46 million tons come 2030. The Sierra Club and others blasted it as a “loophole” that could derail California’s 2045 goal of 100% renewable energy.

That too seemingly adds fuel to the burning perception that Newsom is losing his environmental edge.

Contrast it to last month’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory report , which has Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti walking on water compared to the potentially sinking Newsom. NREL concluded “economic impacts” to Los Angeles “of the 100% renewable energy transition are projected to be small relative to the overall size of LA’s economy.”

So why doesn’t the same thing go for the whole state? And why all the continued fretting about ending reliance on natural gas in Sacramento and San Francisco?

Perceptions count

Perception matters, particularly in a recall. Remember it was Gray Davis who got skewered due to the state’s energy crisis. Yes, Newsom wants to keep the lights on even if it means burning natural gas.

However, parse NREL’s report and instead of a growing gap between Newsom’s state energy regulators, on the one hand, and Garcetti and Biden’s federal scientists on the other, and you’ll find more agreement than disagreement. It’s not so much that Biden and Garcetti are suddenly pulling ahead of Newsom in the race to a clean economy, but merely catching up.

First of all, last year’s CPUC decision made clear that it aimed solely to facilitate new gas plant investments that were tied to energy storage facilities. It further noted a limited number of new gas power plants eventually could be fueled with biomethane or hydrogen.

Likewise, NREL’s report on Los Angeles found natural gas, and even coal and nuclear energy, would continue to play a role in meeting the energy needs of the state’s biggest city. Nuclear power would not disappear until 2040. Limited use of natural gas and coal would remain come 2045. On top of that, new natural gas plants would gradually be converted to run on biomethane and hydrogen to meet peak power needs.

When it comes to closing old coastal power plants, no one will take longer than LADWP. It has until the end of 2029 to close or repower one of its major gas-fired plants at the beach and until the end of 2024 to do the same with another.

As for greenhouse gas reductions, NREL found that after LADWP ends its dependence on a coal power plant in Utah in 2025 greenhouse gas emissions from power production would drop precipitously, but not wholly disappear until at least 2040. The only exception was a scenario in the report under which Los Angeles went almost 100% renewable in 2025, including all electric transportation, something that’s simply unrealistic.

IOU coal contracts ceased years ago

The fact is California’s state-regulated private utilities ended long-term contracts for coal-fired plants years ago, which caused a major reduction in their greenhouse gas emissions. So instead of leading, Los Angeles is lagging on getting coal out of its portfolio.

That’s why instead of focusing on the negatives of a horse race between Garcetti and Newsom in the back stretch to a clean energy economy finish line, what about the good news?

California’s greenhouse gas emissions targets and long drive to a squeaky clean future are increasingly within grasp without risk of gut-wrenching impacts on the state’s economy. Indeed, after decades of effort, the glass is truly half full and filling quickly.