JUICE: In Search of Wisdom

A tee-shirt I wear that draws favorable comments states in simple black print: “Information is abundant. Wisdom is scarce.”

It occurred to me over the weekend that those words are particularly fitting to the dilemma of deciding what to do about the future of Pacific Gas & Electric’s Diablo Canyon Power Plant, the state’s last operating nuclear generation facility.

Studies are piling up concerning the plant’s seismic safety, impact on marine life, necessity to grid reliability, and just about everything else. Now, more studies are on the way, concerning how an earthquake would affect the plant’s structures and equipment, what seismic upgrades may be needed, the environmental impacts of maintaining the plant, what aged equipment has to be replaced, etc.

The costs are mounting too. Studies alone related to deciding the plant’s future soon will reach some $150 million, not to mention expenditures for upgrades. One economist has estimated it will take $3.5 billion in upgrades to keep the plant going.

For instance, the latest 2015 seismic hazard assessment showing the plant faces an earthquake stronger than it was built to withstand—at least what’s claimed in Diablo Canyon’s operating license—cost some $64 million.

The new look at how the quakes outlined in the 2015 seismic hazard assessment will affect the plant will cost up to $8 million, according to the utility. Developing a mitigation plan after that will take additional money, not counting any subsequent equipment replacement or structural work that’s identified as needed.

Relicensing Diablo Canyon at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission could cost about $105 million for various studies, including a set aside for environmental mitigation, according to the utility.

Already, in the wake of the 2011 meltdown of a Japanese nuclear reactor after an earthquake and accompanying tsunami, PG&E has spent some $60 to $70 million on upgrades. It’s installed new instruments to monitor cooling of the plant’s core and spent fuel storage facilities and bought portable generators, pumps, batteries and other equipment that might be needed should its built-in systems become damaged.

Meanwhile, reducing the damage the plant causes to marine life by using ocean water for cooling could cost anywhere from around $450 million to $14 billion, depending upon what’s deemed needed.

Additional costs are expected, including replacement of aging equipment, some of which may have become brittle during its 30 years of operation. All this information from an industry concerned about safety is laudable. But what’s needed now is wisdom.

Diablo Canyon, conceived of in the 1960’s and eventually built and opened in the 1980s, is seen by some as safe and necessary to maintaining a reliable grid and affordable power to keep the state’s economy humming.

That may have been true in the past, but in the 30 years since the plant was built, it’s become clear that renewable energy, flexible fast ramping plants, energy efficiency, demand response, distributed power—from rooftop solar to fuel cells—and energy storage are the inevitable future of the power industry.

In little more than a decade since the state adopted its original renewable energy standard and then set course to cut greenhouse gas emissions these new technologies, produced by an array of new inventors and companies (including California’s own Elon Musk, who is building a $1 billion energy storage battery factory), have brought California to a veritable embarrassment of riches.

While state policy is to keep a 15 percent generating reserve capacity above peak demand in case any part of the grid goes down, California Independent System Operator data show that capacity is well above that level. Even as I write this on a hot summer day, the available reserve is 35 percent of peak demand.

That’s why—particularly in Northern California, where Diablo Canyon sends most of its power—there are enough power plants and transmission lines that the state wouldn’t miss the nuclear facility if it were to close, according to the grid operator.

Surely, there are old facilities due to be shut down or downsized in the years ahead, but it’s evident the state is on the verge of overspending on its power system after years of heavy and needed investment.

This is not to say that more investment won’t be needed to keep the huge grid running and meet state policy goals. Yet, it’s time to start scrutinizing expenditures and make careful choices beyond checking the “all of the above box” in setting energy policy. This is particularly true when it comes to facilities where an accident could have such potentially catastrophic consequences as at Diablo.