LADWP Could Be Key to Avoiding Summer Blackouts

The Los Angeles Department of Water & Power may be able to fill the estimated 1,000 MW potential peak supply shortfall this summer in Southern California. ?We?re in discussions with [Southern California] Edison and other potential customers for the sale of power,? explained Henry Martinez, LADWP?s assistant general manager for power. He thinks the department could fill the California Independent System Operator?s expected shortfall with LADWP?s newly repowered plants and enhanced generation capacity. ?We are aware of the pressure and need for early planning,? Martinez said. The grid operator fears Southern California may need as much as 1,000 MW under peak demand conditions this summer. Martinez said the department hopes to work out a pact over the next couple of months that will specify the price terms for its power. That way, ?there is no second-guessing after the summer about what the price should have been,? as occurred during the energy crisis, he added. The discussions are taking place against a backdrop of rapidly rising demand for power and a confluence of nettlesome factors. These include forecasts for a hotter-than-normal summer in California and the rest of the West, drier-than-normal weather in the Pacific Northwest, and potential generating plant closures. Aside from LADWP?s generating capacity, about the only other bright spot is the completion of some major transmission projects last month. ?We see demand for electricity growing in California, probably at about 4 percent?much more than we thought?and even more in Southern California,? said CAISO spokesperson Gregg Fishman. CAISO data show that the monthly peak load grew by 10.1 percent last September, with some of the hottest weather in Southern California. At the same time, CAISO is concerned that seven generating units that provide 676 MW of capacity in Southern California and 1,046 MW of capacity in Northern California might close sometime this year. In addition, potential retirements planned next year could eliminate another 4,303 MW of generating capacity. Beyond that, CAISO is worried about closure of an additional 4,264 MW of generation capacity given the age and inefficiency of many of the state?s generating plants and their lack of reliability-must-run subsidies or long-term state contracts. Despite such factors, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council believes that California and the West will get through the coming summer without supply shortages as long as nothing unexpected happens, said spokesperson Kwin Peterson. Yet the council warns in its recent power supply assessment that a peak-demand escalation of as much as 15 percent could leave Southern California and the desert Southwest short this summer. The council?s power supply assessment also projects a shortfall in Northern California in summer 2006 should peak demand escalate by 15 percent. The council?s analysis assumes that ?adverse? conditions will continue in the Western states for hydropower but that there will be no surprise plant closures. California got 16.2 percent of its gross power in 2003 from large hydro projects, according to the Energy Commission. ?We?re looking at a forecast of 80 percent of average water,? said Ed Mosey, Bonneville Power Administration spokesperson. He predicted that the federal agency still will offer nonfirm power this summer, though the price could be high. In the Southwest, output at Hoover Dam may not change much this summer, said a spokesperson for the Bureau of Reclamation. Hoover Dam is operating at 80 percent of capacity. Meanwhile, the heavy snow and rain have brightened the outlook for California hydropower projects. ?It?s looking like we?re heading into a well-above-average scenario,? said Dave Hart, California Department of Water Resources engineering associate. Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains already is approaching or has attained the normal April 1 level. The expectation is that above-normal precipitation will continue into the spring. The only thing that could go wrong is if spring turns out hotter than normal and causes early snowmelt, which happened last year, Hart noted. Another positive factor is the upgrade of several transmission facilities, notably completion of the Path 15 and Pacific DC Intertie projects. The Path 15 upgrade project will allow up to 1,500 MW of additional power to flow between Southern and Northern California, particularly when northern hydro resources are in short supply. The Pacific DC Intertie between California and the Pacific Northwest will be fully functional this summer after being partially shut down last summer for modernization work and unable to perform at its full capacity of 3,100 MW for many years because of aging components, said Martinez at LADWP, which runs part of the project. By September or even earlier, San Diego Gas & Electric hopes to complete an additional line between its Miguel and Mission substations. It will allow the utility to bring in an added 400 MW from the Southwest, if need be, said utility spokesperson Stephanie Donovan. Modifications already made at the Miguel substation will allow SDG&E to tap another 100 MW of power from the east this summer. In addition, she said the utility expects to be able to draw 46 MW of power from the Ramco peaker unit at Miramar after it is completed in June. Conservation will be another goal, she said. The utility hopes to increase conservation by 50 MW before summer and to reduce another 38 MW of peak load through its demand response program.

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LADWP Could Be Key to Avoiding Summer Blackouts

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