New Report Claims More LNG Would Help Economy

Natural gas prices could decline by more than 20 percent if at least one of the proposed liquefied natural gas terminals proposed for the West Coast comes on line, concludes a report by LNG proponents released April 28. Increasing imports of foreign natural gas would have a ?dramatic positive effect? on California?s economy, said the report?s author, Philip Romero, a professor at the University of Oregon?s Lundquist College of Business and former chief economist to Governor Pete Wilson. He asserts that a 10 percent reduction in gas prices due to increased supply would boost California?s gross state product by between 7 percent and 24 percent. The report focuses exclusively on the possible financial ramifications of more gas imports. ?Given that California?s 2003 [gross state product] was just under $1.5 trillion, this implies that a 10 percent decline would increase state output by $960 million to $3.45 billion,? states High Natural Gas Price Need Not Cook California?s Economy. The report is sponsored by the pro-LNG group Californians for Clean, Affordable, Safe Energy ( Circuit , March 4, 2005). That could translate into a rise in employment numbers of between 11,500 and 41,500 per year. Another scenario, which looks at possible fatter wallets because of fewer greenbacks spent on gas, estimates an increase in the gross state product of between $2.3 billion and $4.6 billion and up to 55,300 more jobs. The projections are based on LNG prices remaining above $6/MMbtu and construction of one of the proposed terminals importing between 550 million and 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas a day. Romero said that California pays higher gas prices than the rest of the U.S. because it imports 85 percent of its natural gas needs, is located far away from most sources of North American supplies, and has limited pipeline capacity. However, there are few data to support his assertion that California?s businesses, schools, and homes pay more than others in the U.S. At the same time, the geographic constraint of being on the West Coast gives the state an advantage for importing LNG, according to Romero.

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New Report Claims More LNG Would Help Economy

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