Senators Told World Energy Transition Will Cost Trillions

Cutting global carbon dioxide emissions in half by 2050, and dealing with oil supply constraints is likely to cost up to $45 trillion, the International Energy Agency told the U.S. Senate June 25. That huge sum would require investing 1.1 percent of the world’s gross economic product in a wide range of new technologies, many of them yet to be commercially developed. “We would require immediate policy action on an unprecedented scale,” Neil Hirst, IEA director for energy technology and research and development, told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. “It essentially would involve a global technology revolution.” As a percentage of world gross product the cost could rise if the rosy economic growth assumptions made by IEA do not pan out, noted Hirst. He presented the findings of an IEA study released earlier this month to the panel. It outlined what is needed to cut emissions and deal with constrained oil resources. It found that each year through 2050 the world would have to erect 14,000 wind power turbines, 32 new nuclear power plants, and 35 new coal power plants equipped with carbon capture and sequestration technology. Gas power plants also would have to be equipped with carbon capture and storage technology. Heightened energy efficiency would have to be employed in buildings, industry, and appliances. By 2050, cars could no longer be made with conventional internal combustion engines, but would have to run on hydrogen fuel cells, battery-powered electric motors, or plug-in hybrid technology. Biofuels would have to be used extensively for heavy vehicles and in marine and air transport. Ethanol made from food grains would have to be phased out. “There isn’t a choice,” said Hirst. “We need to do all of these things to meet these goals.” Unfortunately, Hirst told lawmakers, “global trends have been unfavorable. It’s clear the trend must be reversed.” Significant upgrades to the power grid system will be needed to make the transition to cleaner and more sustainable power, said Thomas Wilson, Electric Power Research Institute senior program manager. “We must move from analysis to action,” he said. Carrying out the revolution envisioned by IEA will require more than “incremental improvements” in technology, said Raymond Orbach, U.S. Department of Energy science office director. “Transformative breakthroughs” will be needed, he said. The good news, however, is that the “energy crisis has really caused us to open the box and think about things that are transformational.” He cited research into storing renewable power using batteries and compressed air, as well as promising new biotechnology research aimed at making liquid fuels from algae and bacteria. In response to the sober assessment of the costs, Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) said he believed the goals outlined by IEA were attainable, although “extremely difficult.” Senate Pete Domenici (R-NM) called the need to reduce carbon dioxide and dependence on fossil fuel imported from abroad the “two great problems confronting Americans.” To stem the flow of cash to oil producing nations in order to preserve it for making a green energy transition domestically, he called for opening new areas to oil and gas production in the U.S. “It takes black gold to get to a green future,” Domenici said. “We are going to have economic ruin if we don’t diminish our dependence on [foreign] oil.”

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Senators Told World Energy Transition Will Cost Trillions

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