California will need carbon capture and sequestration, plus 10 gigawatts of new natural gas-fired power plants to become carbon neutral by 2045, according to the latest update of the state’s blueprint for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Much of the carbon capture and sequestration will involve better land management practices but also require using technology to remove carbon from exhaust streams at power plants and other industrial facilities, as well as directly from the atmosphere.

“This plan puts all the tools on the table,” said Liane Randolph, agency head, said during a California Air Resources Board meeting on June 23 held to begin formal consideration of the updated carbon reduction blueprint, known as the scoping plan.

Under state law AB 32, enacted in 2006 to dramatically reduce California’s contribution to global warming, CARB must update the scoping plan every five years. The board does not expect to adopt the latest scoping plan update until the end of the year.

“This is about the future of our planet and whether we can have one for humankind,” said Jared Blumenfeld, California Environmental Protection Agency secretary. “There is no option to fail.”

Blumenfeld acknowledged environmentalists are critical of the plan because it would continue use of natural gas-fired power plants and rely on unproven and potentially uneconomical direct air capture of carbon.  However, he urged Californians to form a “partnership” and focus on “what brings us together” rather than on the things “that divide us.”

His remarks did not keep environmentalists from standing firm in their critique of the draft scoping plan update.

Martha Dina Argüello, chair of CARB’s Environmental Justice Advisory Committee, told the board that to be successful and equitable the plan must call for the complete phase-out of fossil fuel use, including shutting down petroleum refineries, which are typically located in low-income communities.

Other advisory committee members stressed that the grid can meet electricity demand reliably by more aggressively implementing demand response and energy efficiency technologies, as well as setting up microgrids powered by small-scale renewable generating facilities located within communities.

A report released late last week found that CARB’s draft plant would miss the state’s 2030 greenhouse gas targets by 20%.

CARB staff said that while the number of gas-fired power plants would increase under the plan, overall emissions from gas-fired units won’t increase because they will be used less frequently, mainly to fill in short gaps in renewable power production and to meet demand during extreme heat storms.

By 2035, CARB’s draft plan calls for:

• A 30-fold increase in the number of electric vehicles in California;
• A six-fold increase in the number of electric appliances—like heat pumps—for heating and cooling and other uses in buildings;
• A 60-fold increase in the production of hydrogen to use as fuel;
• A four-fold increase in solar and wind power generation; and
• A 91%  decrease in petroleum use.

Amanda Hansen, deputy secretary for climate change at the California Natural Resources Agency, said that what’s particularly new about the proposed plan update is its emphasis on better management of farm and forest lands so they become sinks for atmospheric carbon. Currently, she said, California’s lands are a net emitter of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, in large part due the magnitude of wildfires.

Cap-and-trade falls short

The draft update also signals that the state intends to continue its carbon cap-and-trade program, though it’s fallen short in achieving emissions reductions. CARB staff indicated the program will continue because it provides a major source of revenue the state can use to incentivize emissions-free technologies and adaptations to the increasingly hot climate.

After today’s meeting, CARB will hold a series of workshops and public engagement meetings through the summer to gather more public input before revising the draft plan and presenting it to the board for adoption in the late fall at the earliest.